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Bridge over ocean
1 September 1997 Financial Analysts Journal Volume 53, Issue 5

Sensible Return Forecasting for Portfolio Management

  1. Gregory Connor

Black and Litterman showed that a Bayesian adjustment to expected-return forecasts makes them more suitable for use in portfolio management. A new adjustment applies directly to return-forecasting models rather than to the forecasts they produce. This approach eliminates the need for an arbitrary adjustment when forecasts are inserted into a portfolio-choice model and integrates the return-forecasting and portfolio-choice steps of quantitative investment management.

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