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Bridge over ocean
1 March 1994 Financial Analysts Journal Volume 50, Issue 2

Using Earnings Estimates for Global Asset Allocation

  1. Joseph F. Emanuelli
  2. Randal G. Pearson

Analysts' earnings estimates for individual companies (a "bottom-up" measure) can provide an effective tool for allocating assets across the world's stock markets (a "top-down" approach). Revisions in analysts' earnings estimates for the companies in a country--in particular, the ratio of the estimates raised to the estimates lowered--can be used to select countries that will provide above-average returns. By investing in countries with the highest revision ratios, investors could have generated returns over a 12-month holding period that exceeded the return on the MSCI Global Index by 10 percentage points. The countries with the lowest revision ratios, conversely, underperformed the Global Index consistently over the study period.

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