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Bridge over ocean
1 January 1992 Financial Analysts Journal Volume 48, Issue 1

On Detecting Selection and Timing Ability: The Case of Stock Market Indexes

  1. Heinz Zimmermann
  2. Claudia Zogg-Wetter

Traditional performance tests may show statistically significant excess returns from both market timing and stock selection even when the portfolios tested are perfectly diversified, highly correlated and passive by construction i.e., stock market indexes. An empirical investigation of five Swiss stock indexes yields statistical performance measures of the magnitude found for professionally managed portfolios. Performance measures are obviously extremely sensitive to the empirical specification of the benchmark index; traditional methods may be unable to identify timing or selection ability.

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