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Bridge over ocean
1 July 1966 Financial Analysts Journal Volume 22, Issue 4

The Short Interest—A False Proverb

  1. Barton M. Biggs

This article attempts to analyze the validity of the legend that a rising short interest trend is bullish for the market action of a security while a declining short interest is bearish. This theory is espoused by technicians and advocates of “contrary opinion” as one of the prime technical indicators. The reasons for this belief are discussed, and the trend of short interest and price over a period of sixteen months are studied for thirty-three prominent issues. The results indicate no meaningful correlation with sixteen of the thirty-three stocks performing exactly contrary to the theory, fourteen behaving as they should, and no conclusive trend evident in three others. The phenomena of a “quit point” where the short sellers give-up, buy in, and fuel a rapid advance is also discussed.

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