Feelings and Forecasts: Overconfidence and Human Decision Making
Ryan O. Murphy
In this presentation, Ryan O. Murphy, head of decision sciences at Morningstar Investment Management LLC, discusses the behavioral research about overconfidence, one of the most pervasive and persistent cognitive biases in investment decision making, and offers practical ways that you, your investment teams, and your clients can identify and avoid self-deception. He also addresses how investors and firms can avoid overconfidence bias and improve decision making.
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