Forecasting the effects of geopolitical developments is difficult and is subject to large errors. Sound principles can serve as helpful guidelines for investment forecasts.
Chapter 5 of Geo-Economics: The Interplay between Geopolitics, Economics, and Investments opens the second part of this book, in which I focus on geopolitical trends that might become important in the coming decade. To set the scene, Chapter 5 introduces my 10 rules of forecasting. Developed over years of practical application, these 10 rules have served me well in predicting both financial and political developments and can easily be adopted by every investor. They will also serve as the guiding principles in the discussion of the important geopolitical trends of our time.