Financial Analysts Journal

Creating a “Smart” Conditional Consensus Forecast

  1. Lawrence D. Brown
  2. Gerald D. Gay
  3. Marian Turac

The study examined analyst forecasts of 26 macroeconomic statistics for August 1998 through March 2007. The four research questions were, (1) Does forecast accuracy persist? (2) What are the determinants of such persistence? (3) Do analysts who exhibit these characteristics make more accurate forecasts than the simple consensus? (4) Is a “smart” consensus that is based on individuals exhibiting these characteristics more accurate than the simple consensus? It was shown that analyst forecast accuracy persists and is determined by long-term past accuracy and the analyst’s overall ability in forecasting all statistics.

Read the Complete Article in Financial Analysts Journal Financial Analysts Journal CFA Institute Member Content

We’re using cookies, but you can turn them off in Privacy Settings.  Otherwise, you are agreeing to our use of cookies.  Accepting cookies does not mean that we are collecting personal data. Learn more in our Privacy Policy.