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Bridge over ocean
1 November 2008 Financial Analysts Journal Volume 64, Issue 6

Creating a “Smart” Conditional Consensus Forecast

  1. Lawrence D. Brown
  2. Gerald D. Gay
  3. Marian Turac

The study examined analyst forecasts of 26 macroeconomic statistics for August
1998 through March 2007. The four research questions were, (1) Does forecast
accuracy persist? (2) What are the determinants of such persistence? (3) Do
analysts who exhibit these characteristics make more accurate forecasts than the
simple consensus? (4) Is a “smart” consensus that is based on
individuals exhibiting these characteristics more accurate than the simple
consensus? It was shown that analyst forecast accuracy persists and is
determined by long-term past accuracy and the analyst’s overall ability
in forecasting all statistics.

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