Bridge over ocean
1 May 2002 Financial Analysts Journal Volume 58, Issue 3

The Nature of Market Growth, Risk, and Return

  1. Michael J. Dempsey

In the model of asset appreciation advanced here, the market economy and the market of asset claims on the economy are modeled as organic (or exponential growth) processes, similar to those commonly seen in nature and the biological sciences. In “Dempsey's organic growth model of appreciation” (DOGMA), investors have a log-wealth utility function. Within the framework, the market risk premium is derived as the premium that balances supply and demand among risky and risk-free assets. The model indicates that the premium is less than is indicated by ex post returns observed on U.S. stock markets. The model is consistent, however, with empirical observations that idiosyncratic risk and small company size are rewarded by the markets. In terms of the model, investors choose to allocate their portfolios long in both the risky market and the risk-free asset. Furthermore, their portfolios are independent of the investment time horizon.

Read the Complete Article in Financial Analysts Journal Financial Analysts Journal CFA Institute Member Content

We’re using cookies, but you can turn them off in Privacy Settings.  Otherwise, you are agreeing to our use of cookies.  Accepting cookies does not mean that we are collecting personal data. Learn more in our Privacy Policy.