Bridge over ocean
1 May 1996 Financial Analysts Journal Volume 52, Issue 3

Stock Market Valuation Indicators: Is This Time Different?

  1. Kevin Cole
  2. Jean Helwege
  3. David Laster

Traditional market indicators have pointed to an overvalued stock market throughout the 1990s, because the dividend yield dropped to a record low and the market-to-book ratio reached a record high. Despite the indicators, the stock market has performed well, leading market watchers to question whether these indicators behave differently now than they have in the past. This article examines the predictive power of these measures and addresses the claim that the dividend yield and market-to-book ratio are no longer valid indicators. We find that share repurchase activity has not been especially high through most of the 1990s and that, adjusting for buybacks, the dividend yield remains low. Likewise, the market-to-book ratio remains at a record high once charges for retiree health liabilities have been taken into account.

Read the Complete Article in Financial Analysts Journal Financial Analysts Journal CFA Institute Member Content

We’re using cookies, but you can turn them off in Privacy Settings.  Otherwise, you are agreeing to our use of cookies.  Accepting cookies does not mean that we are collecting personal data. Learn more in our Privacy Policy.