Bridge over ocean
1 November 1995 Financial Analysts Journal Volume 51, Issue 6

A Test of the Validity of Friendly Takeover Rumors

  1. Carr Bettis

Building on the fact that corporate insiders who know that their firm is a takeover target are very unlikely to trade in their own securities, a test that can help refute or confirm takeover rumors is developed using publicly available corporate insider trading data. In sum, observable transactions by insiders tend to refute takeover rumors and the absence of such transactions (when they are expected) tend to confirm the rumors. The impact of delays in reporting by insiders and variation in rumor-period length are also discussed. A number of recent examples illustrate how the test could have refuted or confirmed takeover rumors.

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