Some evidence supports the intriguing conjecture that P/Es in the U.S. market may
decline in times of both significantly lower, as well as significantly higher,
real interest rates. The P/E response pattern would then resemble a tent that
angles downward at both ends. For pension liabilities defined in real terms,
very low real rates would then lead to a clifflike falloff in the funding ratio
from the decline in equity valuations combined with surging liability costs.
This article explores the risk implications of such a low-rate scenario and the
equity valuations that could give rise to such a tent pattern.