On 20 May 2013 at the 66th CFA Institute Annual Conference in Singapore, Thomas J. Sargent discussed his research on rational expectations and macroeconomics. He examined the probability distribution function of potential future outcomes in terms of ambiguity aversion and discussed market equilibrium under ambiguity aversion. He also considered whether swings in the market represent changes in the degree of ambiguity and, if so, whether those states can be predicted.