Bridge over ocean
1 September 1998 Financial Analysts Journal Volume 54, Issue 5

Are Industry Stock Returns Predictable?

  1. Kenneth R. Beller
  2. John L. Kling
  3. Michael J. Levinson

We investigated in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of equal-weighted and capitalization-weighted quarterly excess returns for 55 industries over the 1973–95 period. The in-sample analysis supported predictability for about 80 percent of the cap-weighted industries and about 90 percent of the equal-weighted industries. The out-of-sample analysis provided strong evidence that the forecasting models for industry returns combined with mean–variance optimization criteria are useful for portfolio selection.

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